Luke Scott – .258/.340/.488, 60 R, 26 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 77 RBI, 506 PA

Scott had a pretty good year if you look at his total numbers, but I’d say it was a pretty big disappointment after how he finished it. One of the streakiest hitters I’ve ever seen, Scott was hitting .307/.382/.597 with 18 homeruns and 50 RBI at the all-star break and was on pace to have a tremendous season, but he collapsed in the second half – hitting .208/.292/.375 with only 7 homeruns and 26 RBI. He hit much better at home (.929 OPS) than on the road (.727 OPS). After watching Scott play for two years, thats just who he is. You have to go into the season knowing that hes going to have stretches of dominance (1.479 OPS in May) and stretches of futility (.716 OPS in July and August). He has a good batting eye though and will always take a walk no matter how hes hitting the ball. He played mostly DH in 2009 but also got some time in left field and first base.

2010 Prognosis: I think the Orioles are going to try and trade Scott in the offseason. Hes one of our most valuable veterans and we’re pretty crowded with talented outfielders. With Nolan Reimold coming off foot surgery we could use him at DH and play Felix Pie in left, which would leave Scott without a place to play. That is unless the Orioles think Scott can handle first base full time. But even then, I think we’d be better off signing a guy to play first base on a cheap one or two year deal and trading Scott to get some other pieces of the puzzle. Hes a guy that will give you a solid OBP and 20-30 homeruns, so he should have some good value – not to mention hes under control for two more years.

Nolan Reimold – .279/.365/.466, 49 R, 18 doubles, 2 triples, 15 HR, 45 RBI, 8 SB, 411 PA

The Orioles had been taking Reimold’s development slowly over the past few years, but he burst onto the scene this year. He started off at AAA Norfolk and raked International League pitching to the tune of .394/.485/.743 with 11 doubles and 9 homeruns over 31 games. When Luke Scott went on the disabled list in the middle of May, Reimold got his chance and never looked back. He took over the left field job (Scott and Felix Pie had been playing there) until he was shut down in September with a foot injury. At 26, hes not a young prospect but hes a guy that hits for alot of power and is also patient at the plate. He also has good speed and hustles on every single play. Reimold is guy you have to love, a sure fan favorite. Defensively hes got some issues, but hes athletic enough that he should be able to become around a league average fielder. He has a hard time tracking some fly balls and if he can’t improve in that area, his future may lie as a DH.

2010 Prognosis: The foot surgery apparently went well and Reimold should be ready to go in time for Spring Training. The Orioles will most likely take it easy on him next year, at least towards the beginning of the season. With Felix Pie having improved so much, plus hes much better than Reimold in the field, Nolan should see alot of time at DH in 2010 while playing left against left handed pitchers since Pie struggles against them. I think the injury sapped him of some power towards the latter part of the season, so hopefully he can get back to being the player he was before it popped up. I’d look for an OPS around .850 from Reimold in 2010 with 20 – 30 homeruns.

Lou Montanez – .183/.244/.280, 5 R, 5 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 91 PA

Montanez got some playing time in left field when Felix Pie was struggling in the beginning of the year until he broke him thumb making a diving catch. He wasn’t doing much with the bat. He had an OPS around .600 in 50 at bats. He came back in late September after injuries to Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Pie left us desperate for an outfielder and did even worse. It was a rough season for Montanez, but I see him as a AAAA type of player that won’t make it in the big leagues.

2010 Prognosis: I think Montanez will be a casualty on the 40 man roster over the offseason. We’re just too loaded in the outfield to waste a roster spot on him, plus Jeff Fiorentino has passed him on the depth chart as well. Unless he accepts a minor league deal from the Orioles, I think Montanez will be with a different organization in 2010.

Cesar Izturis – .256/.294/.328, 33 R, 14 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR, 30 RBI, 12 SB, 412 PA

Izturis was signed over the offseason to a two year contract to be our starting shortstop. The Orioles signed him expecting a light hitting, great defensive shortstop and thats exactly what he gave us. His defense was the best we’ve seen since Mike Bordick left. Even though he doesn’t hit for anything other than a decent average, hes still a step up from the Freddie Bynum/Brandan Fahey, Luis Hernandez group from 2008. Izturis also showed off some speed, stealing 12 bases and hes a good baserunner. He was on the DL for about a month in June, but aside from that it looks like a good signing. Obviously hes not the long term answer at short but you could certainly do worse, as the Orioles have proven.

2010 Prognosis: Unless the Orioles trade for a young shortstop that could stick with the team for the long haul (which I hope we’re able to do), I see Izturis staying put as the starter. You know what hes going to give you – above average defense and an average between .250 – .260 with no power and not much patience. He’ll be 30 all of next season so I wouldn’t expect much drop off. If we do trade for another shortstop, Izturis would be an excellent back up shortstop that could fill in defensively at third and second if needed.

Robert Andino – .222/.274/.288, 31 R, 7 doubles, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 215 PA

The Orioles traded for Andino right before opening day, dealing Hayden Penn to the Florida Marlins for him. In limited duty hes proven that he can’t hit a lick and hes still improving defensively. At the start of the year he was a little shaky out there at shortstop, but he got better as the year went along. The one thing I will say is that he filled in admirably for Cesar Izturis when he was on the disabled list. Getting regular at bats for about a month he had an OPS around .600, as opposed to .562 overall. That still doesn’t cut it, but it shows some potential if he was to get regular at bats.

2010 Prognosis: Unfortunately for Andino, the Orioles can’t afford to give him regular at bats. With Izturis on the roster and the way we’re trying to become competitive in the AL East, I don’t think he’ll ever have a big part on this team. Even if we don’t acquire a shortstop in the offseason, I think we could do good to upgrade the back up for the position. I think the best Andino can do for the Orioles in 2010 would be in the same role he filled in 2009. If not with us, he could probably find a job in the same capacity with some other team.

Melvin Mora – .260/.321/.358, 44 R, 20 doubles, 8 HR, 48 RBI, 3 SB, 496 PA

Mora’s production collapsed in 2009. After having a great second half of 2008 he was looked at to provide a solid power bat with good defense, but it looks like it was just his last hurrah. We got solid defense from him but his power was notably absent. He was injured for most of April with a hamstring injury and just couldn’t get anything going when he came back. Eventually he lost playing time to Ty Wigginton and wasn’t very happy about it. I felt like Trembley waited too long to bench Mora and he didn’t stick to his guns because he let Mora back into the lineup consistently. Mora also batted higher in the lineup than he should have almost all year, yet he felt the need to complain when something was done about his lack of production.

2010 Prognosis: Mora has a $10 million team option for 2010 that the Orioles will no doubt decline. His time in Baltimore is over. Some team will sign him to a cheap deal and give him a chance, but I think his years of being a productive major league baseball player are over.

Ty Wigginton – .273/.314/.400, 44 R, 19 doubles, 11 HR, 41 RBI, 1 SB, 436 PA

Wigginton was brought in on a two year deal in the offseason to be a power bat off the bench and a presence in the lineup against left handed pitchers. Instead, he hit better against right handers and had only two of his 11 homeruns against lefties. I’d like to think it was just an off year, but he had his worst OPS since 2003. He got off to a slow start and did get better as the year went along, but he still wasn’t hitting for the power he has over the last three years (24, 22, 23). Defensively he was solid to the ball he could get to, but he has very limited range. He played mainly first and third base, but got a couple of games at shortstop and left field as well.

2010 Prognosis: I see Wigginton in a similar role next year as long as the Orioles can get the third and first basemen that they want. If not, he could be a stop gap at either position until one of Brandon Snyder or Josh Bell are ready. Hopefully he gets back to hitting lefties the way he has throughout his career and his power returns to form. Its also possible hes just in a decline phase of his career. We’ll see.

Justin Turner – .167/.318/.167, 2 R, 3 RBI, 22 PA

Turner was a part of the Ramon Hernandez trade to the Cincinnati Reds in the offseason. In fact, he was probably our main target in the deal. He might’ve had a chance to break spring training as a utility guy but he had a minor injury and the Orioles traded for Robert Andino. In AAA Norfolk Turner hit .300/.362/.388 with 28 doubles, 2 homeruns, and 9 stolen bases. He didn’t get much of a look when he came up in September but he had a pretty successful year. His main position is second base, but obviously the Orioles have that position covered so they’ve been working him at third base also.

2010 Prognosis: Turner has a chance to make the team next year as a bench player depending on what the Orioles do over the winter. He doesn’t have much power, but hes a good contact hitter with a good walk to strikeout ratio. He’ll be 25 next season so there could be a chance for him to develop a little more power. Turner would be a decent prospect for second base if Roberts wasn’t already there. Maybe if the Orioles feel he can handle it defensively he could become the back up shortstop, he”d be an improvement over Andino offensively. Or maybe hes used as a piece in a trade to get a player in more of a position of need.

Brian Roberts – .283/.357/.451, 110 R, 56 doubles, 1 triple, 16 HR, 79 RBI, 30 SB, 716 PA

Roberts had a great year, putting up the 3rd highest OPS of his career. It was nice to see this kind of performance after he signed a four year contract extension in the offseason. That contract starts in 2010, but if he keeps up his pace it looks like it will turn out to be a good signing. He set the MLB record for doubles by a switch hitter (56) and was only four away from the overall record. He set career records with 110 runs and 79 RBI. The only signs of trouble are a steady decline in walks (89, 82, 74) and stolen bases (50, 40, 30), plus a steady increase in strikeouts (66, 99, 104, 112). Those are trends that will most likely continue, but he should still be a productive player for at least two or three more seasons. Speed is an important part of Roberts’ game, but its not like he bunts for base hits or has alot of infield hits. The Orioles won’t have to worry about second base for a while and hopefully Roberts gets a chance to be a part of the next winning baseball team in Baltimore.

2010 Prognosis: I would look for a similar production from Roberts next season, but with a lower slugging percentage and higher on base percentage. Its nice to have the lead off spot in the lineup taken care of. A few more players to drive him in would be nice though.

Ryan Freel – .133/.350/.133, 2 R, 1 RBI, 20 PA

Freel came along with Brandon Waring and Justin Turner when we traded Ramon Hernandez to the Cincinnati Reds. He was thought of to be a utility guy when we got him, but when the season started we had added Felix Pie, Ty Wiggington, and Robert Andino so he became useless. We traded him to the Chicago Cubs after he complained about playing time and sending him to the DL with a concussion for Joey Gathright, who we later traded to the Red Sox. Freel ended up being traded/released by three organizations in 2009 and was out of the majors by early August.

2010 Prognosis: More of the same I would assume. He’ll hope to get a minor league contract with a spring training invite and try to stick as the last man on someones roster.

Michael Aubrey – .289/.326/.500, 12 R, 7 doubles, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 95 PA

Aubrey started off the year in the Cleveland Indians organization. The Orioles traded for him in June and he hit .287/.324/.421 with 13 doubles and 3 homeruns for AAA Norfolk before getting called up when Aubrey Huff was traded. He did a good job in the small sample size he was given, showing more power than he did in the minors. Hes a good fielding first baseman and was a definite improvement over Huff in that area. Injuries have limited Aubreys ascent in the minor leagues after being a highly touted first round pick so he might have some improvement still left in him, but at 27 I think we pretty much know what kind of player he is.

2010 Prognosis – Aubrey will get a chance to make the team in spring training. The Orioles are expected to sign or trade for a big bat at first base, so if that happens he would only be competing for a back up role. If the Orioles fail to acquire that bat, Aubrey will compete against Rhyne Hughes and Brandon Snyder for the starting job. I wouldn’t be comfortable with Aubrey as our starting first baseman next season. He gives you a decent average and a good glove, but not enough power. We need a slugger and Aubrey isn’t that guy. Rhyne Hughes would be a better fit in that scenerio because he has 20+ homerun power.

Aubrey Huff – .253/.321/.405, 51 R, 24 doubles, 1 triple, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 480 PA

Huff was terrible in 2009 after having a career year in 2008. He was looked at to be our cleanup hitter and just failed miserably to all expectations. He was a hole in our lineup and we finally traded him to the Detroit Tigers for a relief pitching prospect. He did even worse with Detroit after the trade, hitting .189/.265/.302 with 6 doubles and 2 homeruns over 106 at bats.

2010 Prognosis: Well he certainly won’t be with the Orioles in 2010. Theres a chance he won’t be with any team after the abysmal season he had in his early 30′s. I’m sure he’ll get a very cheap one year contract or minor league deal from some non-contending team.

Oscar Salazar – .419/.455/.613, 4 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 33 PA

Salazar was a very solid piece to our bench in late June and early July, before we traded him to the San Diego Padres for Cla Meredith. Salazar proved that he can hit this year, but he can’t play defense at all. Hes a butcher no matter where you put him. Thats why he’ll never be an everyday player and it was a good deal for the Orioles. Salazar continued to play the pinch hitter/spot starter role in San Diego, hitting .269/.339/.463 with 8 doubles, 2 triples, and 3 homeruns over 108 at bats.

2010 Prognosis: Salazar should stay with the Padres and continue to be a solid bench player. Hes a good player to have for an NL team where he can pinch hit for the pitcher on most days. As long as the Padres want him, he should be under their control for the foreseeable future.

Matt Wieters – .288/.340/.412, 35 R, 15 doubles, 1 triple, 9 HR, 43 RBI, 385 PA

Wieters came into the season heralded as the top prospect in baseball. He started in AAA Norfolk and struggled a bit earlier on, hitting .260/.367/.360 in April, but got back to being Matt Wieters in May (.330/.398/.582). He had a similar progression when he was promoted to the big club in late May. Wieters had a .637 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage)  in his three games in May, .691 in June, and .767 in July. He slumped a bit in August slipping back to a .652 OPS, but really broke out in September hitting to a .936 OPS. Defensively he also got better as the year went along. He struggled throwing runners out at first, but by the end of the year he was very impressive. He even threw out speedy baserunner Carl Crawford out at second base twice in the same game. Overall it was an important and successful season for Wieters. He gained much needed experience hitting major league pitching and, maybe more importantly, catching and handling a major league staff.

2010 Prognosis: I expect Wieters to become one of the best hitters in baseball as soon as next year. I think the way he hit in September is along the lines of what we should expect over the whole year. Its the kind of hitter he was at every step of the way in his career. He’ll be 23 years old on opening day and is under the Orioles control for at least six more years. He should be our number three hitter in the lineup next season depending on who we acquire in the offseason. I think .290 – .310, 25 – 35 homeruns, and 80 – 100 RBI is in the realm of possibility.

Chad Moeller – .258/.313/.438, 6 R, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 100 PA

Moeller started the season as the back up catcher to Gregg Zaun until Matt Wieters was promoted. Ironically, he resumed his back up role after Zaun was traded in August. He hit surprisingly well during his second stint with the big league club, especially since he hit .203/.242/.254 over 118 at bats in AAA Norfolk between his time in the majors. Apparently he had a good rapport with alot of pitchers so theres not much to complain about.

2010 Prognosis: Its not hard to imagine Moeller being brought back for the back up catcher role in 2010, but at the same time I don’t think we’re rushing to do so. It will probably be one of the last decisions made in the offseason. If he signs elsewhere, the Orioles will just find someone else that fits the same description. They’re a dime a dozen. I wouldn’t complain if he was re-signed either.

Gregg Zaun – .244/.355/.375, 22 R, 10 doubles, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 197 PA

Zaun was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays on August 7th, but did a good job as back up catcher to Matt Wieters before then. He was terrible for the first two months of the season when he was the primary backstop for the Orioles, hitting .209/.316/.304 in that time span. But once Wieters came up it was like a different player came up with him to be his back up. As the back up Zaun hit .321/.446/.528, which is phenomenal. He was successful with the Rays as well after the trade, hitting .287/.323/.489.

2010 Prognosis: I wouldn’t mind seeing Zaun brought back next season as the back up to Wieters again, but most likely he’ll re-sign with Tampa Bay or go somewhere else. He performed well enough to play a little more than a game or two a week in 2010. Maybe theres a platoon situation for him out there somewhere.

Guillermo Rodriguez – .000/.286/.000, 1 R, 1 RBI, 7 PA

Rodriguez was just a third catcher for September when rosters expanded. He had no hits and a walk in seven plate appearances, so he really didn’t have an effect on the team.

2010 Prognosis: I would suspect Rodriguez will be a casualty on the 40 man roster in the offseason. Maybe we sign him to a minor league contract or he goes elsewhere.

2009 record: 64-98, 5th in AL East

Free Agents: 3B Melvin Mora, RHP Danys Baez, LHP Mark Hendrickson

Hendrickson will most likely be brought back on another one year contract. He pitched effectively out of the bullpen after starting the year in the rotation. As long as he doesn’t demand much of a bump in money or a two year deal, and he accepts a role in the bullpen I see him being one of the first signings for 2010.

We hold a team option for 2010 on Mora, but there is almost no chance we exercise it. Mora dropped off significantly at the plate, hitting for almost no power and not much average. Hes decent in the field, but not good enough to offset the well below league average hitting for a third baseman. We have Ty Wiggington fairly cheap for one more year and a great prospect at the position in Josh Bell. I could see Wiggington or free agent on a one year deal filling in until Bell is ready. We’ve been linked to the Florida Marlins Dan Uggla, who could man third base until Bell is ready and then slide over to first base or DH. He would fit the right handed power hitter, but I could only see us trading for him if he doesn’t demand much in terms of prospects.

I don’t see us bringing Baez back. He pitched decently and much better than expected coming back from surgery, but he wasn’t able to pitch in back to back games and was up and down most of the year. We can get similar or better production for much cheaper. We do need to improve our bullpen, but I think it will get better without adding anyone from outside the organization. Jim Johnson struggled after moving into the closers role, but he should bounce back some. Kam Mickolio showed some great potential before being shut down with shoulder fatigue. Koji Uehara should be fully recovered and he should be more effective switching to the bullpen where he only needs to pitch an inning or two at a time. Mark Hendrickson just needs to mirror what he did in 2009. Jason Berken should be moved to the bullpen where he can concentrate more on each pitch and hopefully break out like Jim Johnson did in 2008. The same can be said of David Hernandez if he doesn’t make the starting rotation. Matt Albers and Chris Ray could each see improvement going into their second year removed from major injuries. Cla Meredith returns as well. The big name out there is Chicago White Sox closer Bobby Jenks. Word is they’re looking to move him and could even non-tender him if not enough interest is shown. He could be a great target if we can get him cheap enough. Jonathon Papelbon is also rumored to be on the block, but I wouldn’t be interested if I was the Orioles. Hes already been declining, hes going to get very expensive to keep soon, and he would cost a ton in a trade to get.

The starting pitching should be much improved as long as the young guys keep improving. Brad Bergesen was the break out before he got hit with the line drive that put him out for the year. He should be fully recovered and ready to go in spring training. Hes a hard worker and a smart kid that knows how to pitch. I would expect Jeremy Guthrie to be better than 2009, but maybe not as good as 2007-2008. We could definitely look to trade him if the right offer comes along. Brian Matusz looked like an ace over his last few starts before being shut down. I think he’ll establish himself as our ace next year. Chris Tillman has all the tools to be a top of the rotation pitcher, its just a matter of how fast he develops. He should be the 4th or 5th starter going into the year. I do think the Orioles will sign for a free agent pitcher, but don’t expect it to be John Lackey. It isn’t in Andy MacPhail’s philosophy to spend big money over four or more years for pitchers. I could see us signing one of Rich Harden, Carl Pavano, or someone of that ilk that will sign for a one or two year deal for relatively cheap. David Hernandez, Jason Berken, and Jake Arrieta will also compete for the last spot in the rotation.

On the offensive side the Orioles need power at the corner infield positions. I already went over third base, and its a similar situation at first base. We have a good prospect in Brandon Snyder who should be ready by 2011, although hes not as highly touted as Josh Bell. We also have Rhyne Hughes and Michael Aubrey who will compete for the first base job. Unless MacPhail decides to go for a long term option like Adrian Gonzalez or Prince Fielder which would cost us alot in prospects, I think he’ll go the stop gap route. He could trade for a veteran at the end of his contract, like Paul Konerko, which wouldn’t cost much or sign a power hitting veteran on a one or two year deal. Carlos Delgado and Russell Branyan as examples. Acquiring those kinds of players at first and third would give us an offensive boost without blocking our top prospects. I see Luke Scott being traded for prospects over the offseason unless we decide to put him at first base, which would be similar to signing a Delgado type. We should also look for a long term solution at shortstop. As much of an upgrade as Cesar Izturis has been defensively, hes not the answer. JJ Hardy and Yunel Escobar could be trade targets for MacPhail.

I’ll give a hypothetical roster of what I think our team might look like at the start of next season.

Starting rotation

Brad Bergesen
Brian Matusz
Jeremy Guthrie
Chris Tillman
Rich Harden/Carl Pavano/Jake Arrieta/David Hernandez

Bullpen

Bobby Jenks
Jim Johnson
Koji Uehara
Kam Mickolio
Mark Hendrickson
Cla Meredith
Jason Berken/Chris Ray/Matt Albers/Dennis Sarfate/Alberto Castillo

Starting Lineup

Brian Roberts – 2B
Nick Markakis – RF
Matt Wieters – C
Dan Uggla – 3B
Adam Jones – CF
Carlos Delgado/Russell Branyan/Paul Konerko/Luke Scott – 1B
Nolan Reimold – DH
Felix Pie – LF
Cesar Izturis – SS

Bench

Ty Wiggington – 1B/3B/2B
Robert Andino – SS
Jeff Fiorentino – OF
Chad Moeller – C

What do you think? Do you think we could compete with a team like that? Am I way off base? Will MacPhail go in a different direction? Let me know in the comments.