
Heres a quick look at how the spring training battles are playing out. I think its safe to assume at thise point that Matt Wieters, JJ Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Nolan Reimold, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis will be playing near everyday. Chris Davis is the favorite for first base but Nick Johnson has an outside shot. Wilson Betemit will probably DH everyday against right handed pitchers. Taylor Teagarden will be the backup catcher unless he starts the year on the DL (he just had minor back surgery and is expected to miss about three weeks), Ronny Paulino if he does. Endy Chavez has solidified the fourth outfielders role with a hot start to the spring season. Second base, utility infielder, and fifth outfielder/right handed DH option are legitimate question marks right now. The starting rotation is completely up for grabs and there are a bunch of ways the bullpen could play out. Lets look a little closer at the choices.

Second Base/Utility Infielder/4th Bench Spot: Robert Andino, Matt Antonelli, Ryan Flaherty, Jai Miller
Andino is the favorite to start the season as the every day second baseman. Brian Roberts is still a ways off from being able to play in games and might never be able to. The Orioles will count any production he provides as a bonus at this point. Andino is coming off his tremendous finish to the season, knocking the Red Sox out of the playoffs. Hes struggling so far this spring, hitting .211/.318/.263 with a double. His defense and the fact that Buck Showalter loves him lean in his favor though.
Antonelli can play second and third base and gets on base at a very solid clip. Hes batting .286/.450/.286 this spring with a stolen base. Hes not showing any pop, but he can hit some doubles and you have to love that on base percentage. His defense won’t kill you but hes a notch or two below Andino in that regard. Hes out of options and I think he makes the team with Dan Duquettes emphasis on getting on base.
Flaherty was the Orioles rule 5 pick from the Chicago Cubs organization and he can flat out hit. Hes proven that much with a .273/.360/.545 line this spring with a double, triple, and homerun. His defense is the worst of the three infielders but he has gotten time at shortstop when Hardy takes a day off and can also play second and third. I think the O’s front office is high on this guy so theres a good chance he makes the team as well.
Miller has a chance to bump one of the three infielders off the opening day roster, mainly because his hot start this spring and because he provides excellent defense at all three outfield positions. But so does Endy Chavez who will be on the team and with Andino able to play some left field in a pinch he might be the odd man out. Hes out of waivers but the Orioles could probably sneak him through and start him at AAA Norfolk. Hes making a case for part time DH with his .280/.308/.560 line with four doubles and a homerun, but I think Antonelli gets the nod in that role opposite Wilson Betemit.

Starting Rotation: Jason Hammel, Jake Arrieta, Wei-Yin Chen, Brian Matusz, Zach Britton, Tommy Hunter, Tsuyoshi Wada
I guess you can consider Brad Bergesen, Alfredo Simon, Dana Eveland, and Chris Tillman in the hunt as well but I don’t see any way one of them makes the rotation, although Tillman is getting rave reviews with a fastball in the mid-90′s. He’ll start at Norfolk and try to earn his way up. Matusz is the guy who looks most improved. Hes reminding people why he was our top pitching prospect and looks as good if not better than he did during his successful 2010 campaign. He worked out with Brady Anderson during the offseason and has his fastball back up in the 91-93 range instead of the 85-87 it was last year. His offspeed pitches are crisp and his command seems to have returned. That still might not be enough to start the year in the rotation because of the bad impression he left last season. I hope Buck sees through that and gives him a chance, he could be our number one starter.
Arrieta appears healthy after getting bone chips removed from his elbow and hes hitting 97 on the gun. Stuff has never been an issue with Jake but he was sitting in the low 90′s before being shut down last year. Its all about command with him. The O’s will give him plenty of chances to be a starter but if he never puts it together he could be an excellent closer. The other young gun, Zach Britton, hasn’t pitched in a big league spring training game yet because of a slow start with some shoulder inflammation but pitched two scoreless innings yesterday in a minor league game. If hes healthy he should certainly have a spot in the rotation but the O’s could take it slow and start him at AAA until he proves hes 100%.
The Orioles traded Jeremy Guthrie for Jason Hammel so I think he would have to implode to not be one of the first starters we see during the regular season. Chen is off to a great start and will definitely be in the rotation, but we knew that as soon as the O’s gave him a three year contract. Hes almost like another prospect since hes only 26 years old and has plenty of potential. The other asian pitcher we signed, Wada, hasn’t pitched yet and is bothered by a sore elbow. Hes supposed to pitch soon but they could start him on the DL to make sure hes healthy. Tommy Hunter also hasn’t pitched yet but its nothing major, he has some back stiffness. With so many pitchers in camp they can afford to take it slow with these minor injuries. I’ll project the rotation to look like this: Arrieta, Hammel, Chen, Hunter, Matusz to start the year. I think Britton will get a couple starts at AAA and bump Hunter into the bullpen before long.

Bullpen: Jim Johnson, Matt Lindstrom, Pedro Strop, Kevin Gregg, Zach Phillips, Luis Ayala, Darren O’Day, Pat Neshek, Troy Patton, Dana Eveland, Alfredo Simon, Brad Bergesen
Johnson will be the closer. Hes had some back stiffness and just got into his first game but he proved at the end of last year that he can handle the job. Lindstrom was part of the Guthrie trade and throws hard so hes in. Strop was tremendous last year after the Orioles acquired him and looks great this spring so he has to make it. Ayala got a major league deal with an option so he has a spot. If the O’s don’t trade or release Gregg he has to make due to his contract. I sure hope they find a way for him not to be on the team. That leaves two (maybe three, depending on Gregg) spots. You need a lefty or two so I’d say one of Phillips, Eveland or Neshek makes it if Gregg stays, two of them if he goes. The last spot in the bullpen should be between O’Day and Simon. I’d give it to O’Day but if they want someone whos able to go multiple innings it’ll be Simon.
Of course, injuries could change any of these predictions but thats how I see it at this point. If anything changes I’ll chime in with an update, if not – I’ll break down the opening day roster when the time comes.